As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. This is because anyone who is looking at data from 2016 to figure out what to do in 2020 had better be studying Russian hackers in order to put Tom Hanks as U.S. President. Calvin Ridley saw his efficiency take a step forward in 2019, and he’s a hot commodity to break out this year. Let’s break him down.
Calvin Ridley ADP and AAV:
Standard: WR14, 40 overall
PPR: WR16, 44 overall
Average Auction Value: $22
Calvin Ridley Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| G | 13 | 16 |
| GS | 10 | 5 |
| Tgt | 93 | 92 |
| Rec | 63 | 64 |
| Yards | 866 | 821 |
| TD | 7 | 10 |
| Tgt/G | 5.81 | 5.75 |
| Rec/G | 3.94 | 4.00 |
| Rec% | 67.7% | 69.6% |
| Yds/Tgt | 9.31 | 8.92 |
| Yds/Rec | 13.75 | 12.83 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| Std Pts | 134 | 142.8 |
| HPPR Pts | 165.5 | 174.8 |
| PPR Pts | 197 | 206.8 |
| Pts/G | 10.3 | 8.9 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 12.7 | 10.9 |
| PPR Pts/G | 15.2 | 12.9 |
| Pts/Tgt | 1.44 | 1.55 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.78 | 1.90 |
| Pts/Tgt (PPR) | 2.12 | 2.25 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| Air Yards | 1246 | 931 |
| aDOT | 13.4 | 10.3 |
| YAC | 138 | 357 |
| YAC/Tgt | 1.48 | 3.97 |
| YAC/Rec | 2.19 | 5.67 |
| YAC% | 15.9% | 43.8% |
| AYMS | 27% | 17% |
| Tgt MS | 17% | 15% |
Overview:
Ridley has shown great talent and fit in the Falcons’ system. His lack of targets (under 100 both seasons in the league) can be frustrating, but there are 235 targets vacated by players leaving the Falcons in the offseason.
Strategy:
Calvin Ridley Auction Value: $11
Calvin Ridley Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
Obligatory Disclaimer: My low auction value on this player doesn’t indicate I don’t like them (I do!). They just fall into a large group of WR2s, at least one of whom falls for 50% or less of their expected price in every single auction I’ve done, and I’ve done at least a dozen per week since mid-May. Holding out for that value is the key to a successful auction.
Practically all the positive predictors are in play: third-year breakout, solid offense, improved O-line, vacated targets, raw talent, perfect fantasy football team name (“the Calvinted Mr. Ridley”). It’s going to be hard to convince me that Ridley doesn’t finish in the top 18 with a healthy football season. Then again, the way the world looks in May, using the words “healthy” or “football season” feels like I should just be skipping my naive way to the madhouse.
Best Case Scenario:
Ridley makes the leap and is a back-end WR1 come 2021.
Worst Case Scenario:
It turns out the Falcons’ system relies on Ridley only getting 5-7 targets per game. Still, he was a top 24 fantasy WR in 2019. So, just like a split-level home, there’s a high floor.
[Photo Credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Calvin_Ridley_Jan_2018.jpg under cc-2.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
