As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. This is because anyone who is looking at data from 2016 to figure out what to do in 2020 had better be Beyonce working on a sequel to Lemonade. We continue with Curtis Samuel, who had the bane of terrible quarterbacks and has now upgraded to a guy we think isn’t terrible but had his leg literally fall apart in practice. Oh, also they signed Robby Anderson for some reason. What can we expect for Curtis Samuel in 2020?
Curtis Samuel ADP and AAV:
STD: WR49, 119 overall
PPR: WR68, 200 overall
Curtis Samuel Average Auction Value: $1
Curtis Samuel Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 16 | 13 | 9 |
| GS | 15 | 8 | 4 |
| Tgt | 105 | 65 | 26 |
| Rec | 54 | 39 | 15 |
| Yards | 627 | 494 | 115 |
| TD | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Tgt/G | 6.56 | 4.06 | 1.63 |
| Rec/G | 3.38 | 2.44 | 0.94 |
| Rec% | 51.4% | 60.0% | 57.7% |
| Yds/Tgt | 5.97 | 7.60 | 4.42 |
| Yds/Rec | 11.61 | 12.67 | 7.67 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 1608 | 759 | 278 |
| aDOT | 15.3 | 11.9 | 10.7 |
| YAC | 153 | 111 | 41 |
| YAC/Tgt | 1.46 | 1.73 | 1.58 |
| YAC/Rec | 2.83 | 2.92 | 2.73 |
| YAC% | 24.4% | 23.3% | 35.7% |
| AYMS | 30% | 21% | 12% |
| Tgt MS | 17% | 14% | 9% |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 117.7 | 97.8 | 17.9 |
| HPPR Pts | 144.7 | 117.3 | 25.4 |
| PPR Pts | 171.7 | 136.8 | 32.9 |
| Pts/G | 7.4 | 7.5 | 2.0 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 9.0 | 9.0 | 2.8 |
| PPR Pts/G | 10.7 | 10.5 | 3.7 |
| Pts/Tgt | 1.12 | 1.50 | 0.69 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.38 | 1.80 | 0.98 |
| Pts/Tgt (PPR) | 1.64 | 2.10 | 1.27 |
Overview:
Samuel has improved each of the past two years, and with Teddy Bridgewater under center, there is hope that he will repeat this growth. However, the Panthers kind of showed us they trust Samuel as much as I trust that Aaron Rodgers really pals around with his insurance agent. They gave the middle finger to Samuel 20 million times, which is the amount of money they are paying Anderson and oh-my-god why am I explaining my jokes. You, readers, are smart!
Curtis Samuel was going to be the poster boy for air yards regression since he was one of two guys to get over 1,300 air yards and not get 1,000 yards receiving. Then, the Panthers went out and got Teddy Bridgewater, who doesn’t throw deep, and Robby Anderson, who will steal Samuel’s deep targets. He’s now arguably the fourth option on offense (don’t forget Christian McCaffrey) and Curtis Samuel’s 2020 fantasy football value is DOA.
Oh and the other guy with the bad air yards luck? New teammate Robby Anderson.
Curtis Samuel Draft Strategy:
Curtis Samuel Auction Value: $0
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
Best Case Scenario:
Samuel continues to improve and becomes a good bye-week fill-in.
Worst Case Scenario:
Samuel is on your waiver wire when Anderson or D.J. Moore get injured and you don’t have waiver wire priority.
[Photo Credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Washington_Redskins,_Carolina_Panthers_(44604418284).jpg under cc-2.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
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