As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. This is because anyone who is looking at data from 2016 to figure out what to do in 2020 had better be running for President. The Buffalo Bills knocked John Brown down to the WR2 with the addition of Stefon Diggs, but does the offense carry enough promise for us to have some excitement about his 2020 fantasy football season?
John Brown ADP and AAV:
STD: WR38, 90 overall
PPR: WR47, 121 overall
John Brown Average Auction Value: $8
John Brown Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 15 | 16 | 10 |
| GS | 15 | 15 | 5 |
| Tgt | 115 | 97 | 55 |
| Rec | 72 | 42 | 21 |
| Yards | 1060 | 715 | 299 |
| TD | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Tgt/G | 7.19 | 6.06 | 3.44 |
| Rec/G | 4.50 | 2.63 | 1.31 |
| Rec% | 62.6% | 43.3% | 38.2% |
| Yds/Tgt | 9.22 | 7.37 | 5.44 |
| Yds/Rec | 14.72 | 17.02 | 14.24 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 1688 | 1559 | 843 |
| aDOT | 14.7 | 16.1 | 15.6 |
| YAC | 210 | 158 | 59 |
| YAC/Tgt | 1.83 | 1.63 | 1.09 |
| YAC/Rec | 2.92 | 3.76 | 2.81 |
| YAC% | 19.8% | 22.0% | 19.7% |
| AYMS | 38% | 32% | 22% |
| Tgt MS | 24% | 17% | 14% |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 147.8 | 101.9 | 48.9 |
| HPPR Pts | 183.8 | 122.9 | 59.4 |
| PPR Pts | 219.8 | 143.9 | 69.9 |
| Pts/G | 9.9 | 6.4 | 4.9 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 12.3 | 7.7 | 5.9 |
| PPR Pts/G | 14.7 | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| Pts/Tgt | 1.29 | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.60 | 1.27 | 1.08 |
| Pts/Tgt (PPR) | 1.91 | 1.48 | 1.27 |
John Brown Overview:
John Brown had the proverbial third-year breakout in 2019, finishing as a top-24 wide receiver in both PPR and standard scoring. Brown had career highs in catch rate, yards per target, yards, and touchdowns. He ranked top-20 in yardage, touchdowns, and receptions. So, why then is he being drafted around the same spot as Christian McCaffrey’s plumber?
The answer is: Because sometimes the world opens up and drops a giant gift in your lap. Brown’s specialty is the deep ball, and with Stefon Diggs on the field, Brown has a better opportunity to get open. Sure, he will see fewer targets, but Brown was never a volume guy. I mean, come on, he averaged fewer than five catches a game last year. If he’s there in the middle of the eighth in a standard league, snatch him up faster than little children snatch up airheads from the end zone after an Alvin Kamara touchdown (they really need to stop letting them hang out there, it’s dangerous).
John Brown Ranking:
John Brown Auction Value: $1
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
Best Case Scenario:
Brown takes advantage of his newfound on-field freedom and ends the year with double-digit touchdowns as opposing defenses completely ignore him to stop Stefon Diggs.
Worst Case Scenario:
Brown regresses to WR3/4 status. In the 14th-week post-game press conference he makes the surprise announcement that he is following in his namesake’s footsteps.
[Photo Credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2019_Buffalo_Bills_Salute_to_Service_Game_Pregame_Ceremony.jpg under cc-2.0]
