As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Dak Prescott finally broke through into the upper echelons of fantasy football quarterbacks last season. Unfortunately, Lamar Jackson did it while younger and to a greater extent, so Dak was left in the dust. A contract dispute might also leave him on the sidelines in 2020. How will Dak follow up his 2019 campaign if he sorts out his details with the Cowboys?
Dak Prescott ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB6, 61 overall
Average Auction Value: $12
Dak Prescott Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| GS | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Att | 596 | 526 | 490 |
| Comp | 388 | 356 | 308 |
| Comp% | 65.1% | 67.7% | 62.9% |
| Yds | 4902 | 3885 | 3324 |
| TD | 30 | 22 | 22 |
| Int | 11 | 8 | 13 |
| Att/G | 37.3 | 32.9 | 30.6 |
| Comp/G | 24.3 | 22.3 | 19.3 |
| Yds/G | 306.4 | 242.8 | 207.8 |
| TD/G | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| INT/G | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Ru Att | 52 | 75 | 57 |
| Ru Yds | 277 | 305 | 357 |
| Ru TD | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| YPC | 5.3 | 4.1 | 6.3 |
| Ru Att/G | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| Ru Yd/G | 17.3 | 19.1 | 22.3 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| 4 PPTD | 337.8 | 285.9 | 260.7 |
| 6 PPTD | 397.8 | 329.9 | 304.7 |
| 4 PPTD/G | 21.1 | 17.9 | 16.3 |
| 6 PPTD/G | 24.86 | 20.62 | 19.04 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 5543 | 3945 | 3920 |
| aDOT | 9.30 | 7.50 | 8.00 |
| aDOT+ | 1.12 | -0.68 | -0.18 |
| Y/A | 8.22 | 7.39 | 6.78 |
| TD% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% |
| INT% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% |
| Sacks | 23 | 56 | 32 |
| Yds/Sack | 6.57 | 6.20 | 5.78 |
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Dak Prescott Overview:
Dak Prescott took a big step forward last season, with a lot of his breakout attributable to having better wide receivers around him. That isn’t to say that Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup did the hard work. It’s quite the opposite; Dak had quality WRs around him which allowed him to really push the ball downfield. This is most evident in his average depth of target (aDOT). In 2017 and 2018, Dak had an aDOT below league average. In 2019, however, his 9.30 aDOT was 1.12 yards above average and ranked him fifth with Josh Allen.
Now, Prescott has my favorite rookie wide receiver at his disposal, a guy who could make star Amari Cooper and breakout Michael Gallup looking to move down one spot in the pecking order by the time the season is over. Prescott threw for 4,900 yards and 30 touchdowns throwing to Cooper, Gallup, and Randall Cobb. Imagine what he can do with his new receiving room?
This breakout’s only downside is that it came at the expense of Dak’s three-straight seasons rushing for exactly six touchdowns. His rushing numbers decreased across the board, which limits his fantasy football production.
The big downside to Prescott is his contract situation. The Cowboys gave Dak the franchise tag, only committing to him for one season. Prescott, obviously, is looking for a longer commitment for a lot of money. The two sides are at loggerheads and Dak may hold out during the season, leading the Cowboys to, unfortunately, have to start on Mr. Andrew Dalton.
Dak Prescott Draft Strategy:
Dak Prescott Auction Value: $10
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
The thing about Dak Prescott’s top-three potential is that he’s already going at a top-three at the position in most years. This year we’ve just gone QB crazy and jammed a bunch of other quarterbacks into that range.
So, you’re going to pay up for his great campaign. That’s fine if that’s what you want to do. However, we at Football Absurdity do not condone wasting premium draft capital on quarterbacks. Dak is firmly in my do-not-draft segment of the quarterback population, in an area where I would rather take running backs or wide receivers. You need more of those guys, and QB is deep this year. Prescott ranks highly for me, but I do not see him on any of my fantasy football rosters this season.
In auctions, however, dropping $12 or $13 on Dak Prescott does not sound like the craziest idea, especially considering he has a shot to dethrone either Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson, and he’s going for less than one-third their price. In auction, he presents a more interesting proposition than in snake leagues.
Best Case Scenario:
Dak Prescott blows up and tops 5,000 passing yards while returning to his previous rushing form. He unseats one of Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes in the top-two of quarterback rankings.
Worst Case Scenario:
Jerry Jones changes the locks on Dak Prescott and turns to Andy Dalton, continuing his inexplicable love affair with gingers.
[Header Image Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Dak_Prescott,_September_2016.jpg under CC BY SA 2.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
