As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Philip Rivers had an ignominious departure from Los Angeles, unceremoniously kicked to the curb after a truly dreadful end to his sixteen years, and 224 straight starts, with the Chargers. Now he’s an Indianapolis Colt, a situation neither Philip Rivers nor the Colts thought would happen at this point last year. Can Philip Rivers bounce back to fantasy football glory in the Hoosier State, or will opposing defenses be asking him hoosier daddy?
Philip Rivers ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB21, 150 overall
Average Auction Value: $1
Philip Rivers Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| GS | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Att | 591 | 508 | 575 |
| Comp | 390 | 347 | 360 |
| Comp% | 66.0% | 68.3% | 62.6% |
| Yds | 4615 | 4308 | 4515 |
| TD | 23 | 32 | 28 |
| Int | 20 | 12 | 10 |
| Att/G | 36.9 | 31.8 | 35.9 |
| Comp/G | 24.4 | 21.7 | 22.5 |
| Yds/G | 288.4 | 269.3 | 282.2 |
| TD/G | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| INT/G | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Ru Att | 12 | 18 | 18 |
| Ru Yds | 29 | 7 | -2 |
| Ru TD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| YPC | 2.4 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Ru Att/G | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Ru Yd/G | 1.8 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| 4 PPTD | 235.5 | 285 | 270.4 |
| 6 PPTD | 281.5 | 349 | 326.4 |
| 4 PPTD/G | 14.7 | 17.8 | 16.9 |
| 6 PPTD/G | 17.59 | 21.81 | 20.40 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 5024 | 3721 | 4715 |
| aDOT | 8.50 | 7.90 | 8.20 |
| aDOT+ | 0.32 | -0.28 | 0.02 |
| Y/A | 7.81 | 8.48 | 7.85 |
| TD% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% |
| INT% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Sacks | 34 | 32 | 18 |
| Yds/Sack | 6.53 | 6.38 | 6.67 |
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Philip Rivers Overview:
Philip Rivers had one of the most dreadful years of his career last year, but he still threw 23 touchdowns. Unfortunately, that came alongside 20 interceptions, as his interception rate matched his career-high from back in 2011. His 3.9% touchdown rate was the worst of his career, and his 7.1 AY/A was his worst since 2012. Put it all together and we get a season that didn’t quite go as planned for Rivers and the Chargers, hence his jettisoning and replacement with Justin Herbert.
Now, the Colts, still reeling from Andrew Luck’s retirement, replaced their Plan B (Jacoby Brissett) with Rivers. There are some things to like with Rivers in Indianapolis, which might give him a bump in what is likely one of his final years in the NFL.
First: Rivers will play behind what might be the best offensive line that he’s ever had. That will certainly make up for the processor that’s seen better days and preventing rushed throws that led to some awful interceptions last year. Rivers also has no shortage of weaponry at his disposal, with T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman, and Parris Campbell in the WR corps and Marlon Mack, Jonathan Taylor, and Nyheim Hines out of the backfield. Also, Jack Doyle exists!
Philip Rivers Draft Strategy:
Philip Rivers Auction Value: $1
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
As you can see, Rivers is essentially free. If you want him, go get him. Personally, I’m not buying in on dead cat bounces from 38-year-olds that switched teams. I’m more-than-happy to be wrong, but in his range I’m taking swings on guys on the upslope of their career like Joe Burrow or Drew Lock.
Best Case Scenario:
Everything breaks right for Rivers in his first year in Indy and he fulfills all expectations. He finishes somewhere in the QB10 to QB12 range.
Worst Case Scenario:
Remember Peyton Manning’s last season?
[Header Image Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Philip_Rivers_2014.JPG, cropped, under CC BY-SA 4.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
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