As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. This is because anyone who is looking at data from 2016 to figure out what to do in 2020 had better be Jordan Peele researching how to make an upcoming movie called Get Outer. Courtland Sutton is set up for a third-year breakout, but is there too much risk drafting him as a high-end WR2?
Courtland Sutton ADP and AAV:
STD: WR28, 63 overall
PPR: WR18, 44 overall
Courtland Sutton Average Auction Value: $13
Courtland Sutton Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| G | 16 | 16 |
| GS | 14 | 9 |
| Tgt | 124 | 84 |
| Rec | 72 | 42 |
| Yards | 1112 | 704 |
| TD | 6 | 4 |
| Tgt/G | 7.75 | 5.25 |
| Rec/G | 4.50 | 2.63 |
| Rec% | 58.1% | 50.0% |
| Yds/Tgt | 8.97 | 8.38 |
| Yds/Rec | 15.44 | 16.76 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| Std Pts | 150.4 | 94.3 |
| HPPR Pts | 186.4 | 115.3 |
| PPR Pts | 222.4 | 136.3 |
| Pts/G | 9.4 | 5.9 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 11.7 | 7.2 |
| PPR Pts/G | 13.9 | 8.5 |
| Pts/Tgt | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.50 | 1.37 |
| Pts/Tgt (PPR) | 1.79 | 1.62 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| Air Yards | 1471 | 1176 |
| aDOT | 11.9 | 14 |
| YAC | 352 | 173 |
| YAC/Tgt | 2.84 | 2.06 |
| YAC/Rec | 4.89 | 4.22 |
| YAC% | 31.7% | 26.3% |
| AYMS | 41% | 27% |
| Tgt MS | 25% | 15% |
Courtland Sutton Overview:
Courtland Sutton had all opportunities to show off his skills as The Man in Denver last season, but he didn’t really benefit from Denver trading Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco. His targets stayed flat, and his receptions and yards decreased by about one 20-yard catch per game. He had an increased market share, so that means that Broncos just straight up passed less. That probably comes from their rededication to Philip Lindsay on the ground, as his rush attempts increased with Lock under center.
Still, Sutton played on a WR2 pace with Drew Lock in all formats, and he has some help coming this year. The Broncos picked up Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and Albert Okwuegbunam in the draft, which will spread defenses thinner. As we saw last season, Sutton performed 20 yards per game better with another threat on the field with him (sorry DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick, but you don’t qualify).
Sutton certainly has the skills and offense to be yet another third-year wide receiver fantasy football breakout. The question is, Drew Lock be improved, given the lack of offseason workouts to build rapport with Drew Lock? Also, there’s a good chance the whole preseason would be canceled. When it comes to mental fortitude, non-Peyton Manning quarterbacks in the Elway era have all the stability of a blanket fort.
Courtland Sutton Draft Strategy:
Courtland Sutton Auction Value ($200 Budget): $15
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
Obligatory Disclaimer: My low auction value on this player doesn’t indicate I don’t like them (I do!). They just fall into a large group of WR2s, at least one of who falls for 50% or less of their expected price in every single auction I’ve done, and I’ve done at least a dozen per week since mid-May. Holding out for that value is the key to a successful auction.
Courtland Sutton falls in the range of wide receivers where you’re looking to find one for a bargain. Inevitably one of the WR2s falls by the auction wayside, and that’s where you pounce. For snake drafts, he has a bit too much downside to go off the board at WR18, but is a steal at WR28 in non-PPR scoring.
Best Case Scenario:
Somehow Drew Lock emerges from isolation not totally shook and clicks with Sutton. Courtland enters low-end WR1 status.
Worst Case Scenario:
Sutton’s offense has growing pains with the addition of two new players. Courtland get fewer targets (he caught 72 passes last year) and is difficult to be seen as anything but a bye-week replacement. Raider fans look down on the Broncos in terms of mismanagement. Raider fans, people, this is an on-the-table scenario.
[Photo Credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Courtland_Sutton.jpg under cc-2.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
