As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. This is because anyone who is looking at data from 2016 to figure out what to do in 2020 had better be making Zoolander 3 and trying to learn how not to mess it all up. Odell Beckham, Jr. finished outside of the top-24 wide receivers last year, but will another season be what makes the Browns’ potentially potent offense come together?
Odell Beckham, Jr. ADP and AAV:
Standard: WR22, 52 overall
PPR: WR11, 31 overall
Average Auction Value: $28
Odell Beckham, Jr. Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 16 | 12 | 4 |
| GS | 15 | 12 | 2 |
| Tgt | 133 | 124 | 41 |
| Rec | 74 | 77 | 25 |
| Yards | 1035 | 1052 | 302 |
| TD | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Tgt/G | 8.31 | 7.75 | 2.56 |
| Rec/G | 4.63 | 4.81 | 1.56 |
| Rec% | 55.6% | 62.1% | 61.0% |
| Yds/Tgt | 7.78 | 8.48 | 7.37 |
| Yds/Rec | 13.99 | 13.66 | 12.08 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 127.3 | 153.3 | 49 |
| HPPR Pts | 164.3 | 191.8 | 61.5 |
| PPR Pts | 201.3 | 230.3 | 74 |
| Pts/G | 8.0 | 12.8 | 12.3 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 10.3 | 16.0 | 15.4 |
| PPR Pts/G | 12.6 | 19.2 | 18.5 |
| Pts/Tgt | 0.96 | 1.24 | 1.20 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.24 | 1.55 | 1.50 |
| Pts/Tgt (PPR) | 1.51 | 1.86 | 1.80 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 1801 | 1515 | 520 |
| aDOT | 13.5 | 12.3 | 12.7 |
| YAC | 326 | 283 | 65 |
| YAC/Tgt | 2.45 | 2.30 | 1.59 |
| YAC/Rec | 4.41 | 3.72 | 2.60 |
| YAC% | 31.5% | 27.0% | 21.5% |
| AYMS | 38% | 42% | 38% |
| Tgt MS | 25% | 28% | 25% |
Odell Beckham, Jr. Overview:
Remember the last offseason, when we all thought the Browns wouldn’t Browns all over themselves, and that Baker Mayfield to Odell Beckham, Jr. would be the next great thing in fantasy football connections? The Baker2OBJ Pipeline couldn’t be broken, and then the Factory of Sadness activated for one more year of misery for the Mistake by the Lake. Odell Beckham revealed this offseason that he played nearly all year with a sports hernia that required surgery. That likely explains his drop in yards per target and catch rate last year. The Browns never getting on the same page explains the rest of it.
This year, Beckham and the Browns should take a step forward back toward respectability. Cleveland shored up their offensive line in the draft, and Beckham should, hopefully, be healthy to start the year. That makes for a good combination for one of the most talented wide receivers in the league to return to prominence.
The chain of logic goes like this:
- There’s no way the Browns or Odell Beckham, Jr. could be as disastrous as they were last year.
- That’s, uh, that’s about it
Odell Beckham, Jr. Strategy:
Odell Beckham, Jr. Auction Value: $16
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
Personally, I like a high floor with my WR2s: Let them do their 10-15 points while my superstars win me the week. What I don’t like is risking a huge downside against a huge upside, especially when I’m paying about $30 of my $200 auction budget or a third- or fourth-round pick.
Do you know what doesn’t have a high floor? Cleveland’s stadium. You know what’s a high risk, high reward? Architecturally-based metaphors.
Best Case Scenario:
You get a top-five wide receiver in the third or fourth round or between $25 and $30 in your auction. The doctor calls, that supposed tumor is actually a hormonal swelling that causes you to sweat literal milk chocolate.
Worst Case Scenario:
You get a bye-week replacement as one of the top-fifteen wide receivers taken. The doctor calls, that supposed tumor is actually a hormonal swelling that causes you to sweat literal angry wasps.
[Photo Credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Odell_Beckham_Jr._vs_Bengals_2019.jpg under cc-2.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
