As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We all had high expectations for Christian Kirk last season, but he failed to live up to them. Will 2020 be a mulligan on Christian Kirk’s fantasy football value?
Christian Kirk ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: WR38, 92 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: WR39, 103 overall
Average Auction Value: $2
Christian Kirk Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| G | 13 | 12 |
| GS | 13 | 7 |
| Tgt | 108 | 68 |
| Rec | 68 | 43 |
| Yards | 709 | 590 |
| TD | 3 | 3 |
| Tgt/G | 6.75 | 4.25 |
| Rec/G | 4.25 | 2.69 |
| Rec% | 63.0% | 63.2% |
| Yds/Tgt | 6.56 | 8.68 |
| Yds/Rec | 10.43 | 13.72 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| Std Pts | 100.2 | 80.5 |
| HPPR Pts | 134.2 | 102 |
| PPR Pts | 168.2 | 123.5 |
| Pts/G | 7.7 | 6.7 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 10.3 | 8.5 |
| PPR Pts/G | 12.9 | 10.3 |
| Pts/Tgt | 0.93 | 1.18 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.24 | 1.50 |
| Pts/Tgt (PPR) | 1.56 | 1.82 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| Air Yards | 1079 | 653 |
| aDOT | 10 | 9.6 |
| YAC | 286 | 226 |
| YAC/Tgt | 2.65 | 3.32 |
| YAC/Rec | 4.21 | 5.26 |
| YAC% | 40.3% | 38.3% |
| AYMS | 31% | 24% |
| Tgt MS | 23% | 19% |
Christian Kirk Overview:
We seriously hoped and dreamed that Christian Kirk would end up as a top-tier wide receiver last season, but that didn’t come to fruition. Kirk was still useful, posting five top-36 wide receiver weeks last season, but he wasn’t what we wanted. We’d hoped Kirk would take the next step forward and instead became a bye week streamer at best in most leagues. This year, things get worse for Kirk, who now has to contend with one of the league’s biggest target hogs in DeAndre Hopkins. It would behoove the Cardinals to get Hopkins a big chunk of Larry Fitzgerald’s 109 targets last year, and let’s not even think about Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler getting an increased target load, as well.
Christian Kirk Draft Strategy:
Christian Kirk Auction Value: $1
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
At this point, it’s hard to see that Christian Kirk does a whole heckuva lot of what we hoped he would do last season. He fell on his face rather than taking a step forward. The Cardinals also crowded the receiving room like mad, adding Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler in the 2019 draft and Hopkins via a trade.
At this point, Christian Kirk remains nothing but a dart throw and not a dart throw from anyone who is particularly good at darts. He might be the #2 in Arizona, which would make him well worth his draft price if everything goes as planned. Unfortunately, he may be a draft-and-hold that clogs up your roster while we wait for the depth chart to shake out in Arizona. I’m not particularly interested in Kirk unless I have a deep bench or in a deeper league and I’m looking for a deeper upside play.
Best Case Scenario:
The best-case scenario for Christian Kirk in 2020 is that DeAndre Hopkins takes enough attention away from the opposing defense without taking a ton of targets away from Kirk. Kirk had 108 targets in thirteen games last year. That feels like an absolute dream at this point, and Kirk will likely settle in closer to 90ish targets, which means he needs a big step forward in efficiency to do anything of major fantasy football value on five or so targets per game. The best-case scenario is that the Cardinals completely sideline Larry Fitzgerald into a rotational, 50-target role, but I don’t see that coming for the Hall of Famer. They would also need to ignore Butler and Isabella and funnel the majority of their targets to Christian Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins, getting them 50%+ of the targets combined.
Worst Case Scenario:
DeAndre Hopkins takes all his targets. And his locker, and his girlfriend, and his car, and his house, and his family. DeAndre Hopkins is Christian Kirk now, and Christian Kirk is left to wander the desert with the likes of Kevin White and Laquon Treadwell.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
