As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. The 49ers traded Matt Breida out of Kyle Shanahan’s dog house. How will he fare in his new surroundings in Miami?
Matt Breida ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB37, 98 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB42, 102 overall
Average Auction Value: $2
Matt Breida Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| GS | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Ru Att | 123 | 153 | 105 |
| Ru Yds | 623 | 814 | 465 |
| Ru TD | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Tgt | 22 | 31 | 36 |
| Rec | 19 | 27 | 21 |
| Yards | 120 | 261 | 180 |
| TD | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Touches | 142 | 180 | 126 |
| Opp | 145 | 184 | 141 |
| Total Yards | 743 | 1075 | 645 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| YPC | 5.07 | 5.32 | 4.43 |
| Ru Att/G | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.6 |
| Ru Yd/G | 47.9 | 58.1 | 29.1 |
| Tgt/G | 1.69 | 2.21 | 2.25 |
| Rec/G | 1.46 | 1.93 | 1.31 |
| Catch% | 86.4% | 87.1% | 58.3% |
| Yds/Tgt | 5.45 | 8.42 | 5.00 |
| Yds/Rec | 6.32 | 9.67 | 8.57 |
| Touches/G | 10.92 | 12.86 | 7.88 |
| Opp/G | 11.15 | 13.14 | 8.81 |
| Yds/G | 57.15 | 76.79 | 40.31 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 84.3 | 135.5 | 82.5 |
| HPPR Pts | 93.8 | 149 | 93 |
| PPR Pts | 103.3 | 162.5 | 103.5 |
| Pts/G | 6.48 | 9.68 | 5.16 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 7.22 | 10.64 | 5.81 |
| PPR Pts/G | 7.95 | 11.61 | 6.47 |
| Pts/Touch | 0.59 | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| Pts/Touch (HPPR) | 0.66 | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| Pts/Touch (PPR) | 0.73 | 0.90 | 0.82 |
Matt Breida Overview:
If you watched Matt Breida last year, you watched him get slammed to the end of the bench after a couple of untimely fumbles. This gave you the idea that Breida has a fumbling problem. He doesn’t. In his three years in the league, he has a fumble every 112 touches. That puts him slightly above the league average of one fumble every 106 touches. Two guys who remain in San Francisco, Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon, fumble at a higher rate. It turns out that there’s no poison pill with Breida, he was just the odd man out in San Francisco.
From a 5,000-foot view, Matt Breida looks like he had an extremely efficient 2019 campaign. Unfortunately, most of that efficiency is tied up in two long runs: an 83-yard run against the Browns and a 34-yard run against the Cardinals. Those two runs account for over one-sixth of his rushing yards for the year and help to wallpaper over his uglier performances (13 carries for 36 yards, 10 carries for 18 yards, 4 carries for 11 yards and 4 carries for 16 yards). The truth of the matter is that Breida is boom-bust and given his distinct non-usage in the passing game (22 targets in 2019), he busted far more often than he boomed.
Now, Breida enters another muddy backfield in Miami. My feeling with this is that this will start as a thunder-and-lightning backfield and Breida’s constant nagging injuries will finally cost him significant time. He’s escaped significant injury, but has had to leave countless games (though he missed just five in three years).
Matt Breida Draft Strategy:
Matt Breida Auction Value: $2
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
Knowing what I know as someone who has watched literally every snap of Matt Breida’s career: I don’t want Matt Breida on my fantasy football team. I love the player; he’s extremely exciting to watch. Unfortunately, he just doesn’t have the skill set to peak at anything more than the short side of a 60-40 platoon. Given that he doesn’t catch passes, I’m not touching him anywhere. His ADP seems to reflect a perceived upside that we hope exists, but watching him up close and personal for three years, I know what he is at this point.
Breida is best used as a change-of-pace back, something that Miami will hopefully learn quickly. While that makes him an exceptionally useful NFL player, that doesn’t mean he’s a rosterable fantasy football commodity. What he is isn’t anything you want in or around your fantasy football rosters.
Best Case Scenario:
He suddenly develops great hands, adding a receiving component to his game that allows him to stay on the field more than Jordan Howard.
Worst Case Scenario:
Jordan Howard does Jordan Howard things (averaging 1,250 yards per sixteen games) and relegates Breida to an extremely small role off the Miami bench.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
