As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. Joe Mixon is one of the best young running backs in the league, futilely trying to bring relevance to a team that picked first in the 2020 NFL Draft. Where should you pick him in your fantasy football drafts?
Joe Mixon ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB8, 11 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB7, 11 overall
Average Auction Value: $51
Joe Mixon Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 16 | 14 | 14 |
| GS | 15 | 13 | 7 |
| Ru Att | 278 | 237 | 178 |
| Ru Yds | 1137 | 1168 | 626 |
| Ru TD | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| Tgt | 45 | 55 | 34 |
| Rec | 35 | 43 | 30 |
| Yards | 287 | 296 | 287 |
| TD | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Touches | 313 | 280 | 208 |
| Opp | 323 | 292 | 212 |
| Total Yards | 1424 | 1464 | 913 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| YPC | 4.09 | 4.93 | 3.52 |
| Ru Att/G | 17.4 | 16.9 | 12.7 |
| Ru Yd/G | 71.1 | 83.4 | 44.7 |
| Tgt/G | 2.81 | 3.93 | 2.43 |
| Rec/G | 2.19 | 3.07 | 2.14 |
| Catch% | 77.8% | 78.2% | 88.2% |
| Yds/Tgt | 6.38 | 5.38 | 8.44 |
| Yds/Rec | 8.20 | 6.88 | 9.57 |
| Touches/G | 19.56 | 20.00 | 14.86 |
| Opp/G | 20.19 | 20.86 | 15.14 |
| Yds/G | 89.00 | 104.57 | 65.21 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 190.4 | 200.4 | 111.3 |
| HPPR Pts | 207.9 | 221.9 | 126.3 |
| PPR Pts | 225.4 | 243.4 | 141.3 |
| Pts/G | 11.90 | 14.31 | 7.95 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 12.99 | 15.85 | 9.02 |
| PPR Pts/G | 14.09 | 17.39 | 10.09 |
| Pts/Touch | 0.61 | 0.72 | 0.54 |
| Pts/Touch (HPPR) | 0.66 | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| Pts/Touch (PPR) | 0.72 | 0.87 | 0.68 |
Joe Mixon Overview:
Gun to my head, I would say that Joe Mixon was mostly just-okay last season, as I owned almost no shares of him. That is a classic case of the first half of the season solidifying your opinion of a player before the second half lets him correct those ills. In the first eight games of 2019, Mixon paced out for 860 total yards and six touchdowns. Just okay, to bad, especially given where you drafted him. In the second half, he paced out for 1,988 yards and ten touchdowns. He was exceptional in the second half, which ended him somewhere in the middle between “top-five running back” and “barely top-25 running back.”
Now, the Bengals promise to be a greater team, with Joe Burrow taking the helm and an offensive line that promises improvement with some key injury returns (including Billy Price) and overall improvement through a young line getting older and the addition of Xavier Su’a-Filo. If there was ever a year where Joe Mixon could be maximized thus far in his young career, this is it.
Joe Mixon Draft Strategy:
Devin Singletary Auction Value: $37
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
Joe Mixon is one of the back-half-of-the-first-round running backs that I am excited to get, but ultimately, I am not taking him ahead of Dalvin Cook or Derrick Henry. This puts him in a class with Josh Jacobs and (depending on who you ask) Austin Ekeler and/or Kenyan Drake. Personally, I’m taking Mixon over all of them. He may constitute a mini-tier of his own atop those four guys, but there’s a stiff drop off between the top-six backs and Mixon.
It’s not that difficult; if CMC/Kamara/Zeke/Saquon/Dalvin/Henry are all off the board, get Mixon. There’s an argument in PPR leagues or if you have durability concerns to take him over Derrick Henry in the pick-eight or pick-nine range. If I’m put in that position, however, I’m likely snagging a wide receiver and getting a running back on the round two bounce back.
Best Case Scenario:
Joe Mixon looks a lot like his second-half of 2019 and turns in a top-five running back season. In fact, top-three isn’t outside the realm of possibility. IN FACT, finishing as the #1 running back would be strange, but also, a plausible outcome. The sky is the limit for the dynamic running back.
Worst Case Scenario:
Joe Burrow struggles early and returns to LSU so he can be Joe Burreaux forever; the Uncle Rico of the Bayou.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
