As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. The Indianapolis Colts have their two-down thumper in Marlon Mack… except they went out and got the best running back in the 2020 class. Are Mack’s useful fantasy football days numbered in Indianapolis?
Marlon Mack ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB27, 69 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB40, 98 overall
Average Auction Value: $3
Marlon Mack Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 14 | 12 | 14 |
| GS | 12 | 10 | 0 |
| Ru Att | 247 | 195 | 93 |
| Ru Yds | 1091 | 908 | 358 |
| Ru TD | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| Tgt | 17 | 26 | 33 |
| Rec | 14 | 17 | 21 |
| Yards | 82 | 103 | 225 |
| TD | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Touches | 261 | 212 | 114 |
| Opp | 264 | 221 | 126 |
| Total Yards | 1173 | 1011 | 583 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| YPC | 4.42 | 4.66 | 3.85 |
| Ru Att/G | 17.6 | 16.3 | 6.6 |
| Ru Yd/G | 77.9 | 75.7 | 25.6 |
| Tgt/G | 1.21 | 2.17 | 2.36 |
| Rec/G | 1.00 | 1.42 | 1.50 |
| Catch% | 82.4% | 65.4% | 63.6% |
| Yds/Tgt | 4.82 | 3.96 | 6.82 |
| Yds/Rec | 5.86 | 6.06 | 10.71 |
| Touches/G | 18.64 | 17.67 | 8.14 |
| Opp/G | 18.86 | 18.42 | 9.00 |
| Yds/G | 83.79 | 84.25 | 41.64 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 167.3 | 161.1 | 82.3 |
| HPPR Pts | 174.3 | 169.6 | 92.8 |
| PPR Pts | 181.3 | 178.1 | 103.3 |
| Pts/G | 11.95 | 13.43 | 5.88 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 12.45 | 14.13 | 6.63 |
| PPR Pts/G | 12.95 | 14.84 | 7.38 |
| Pts/Touch | 0.64 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| Pts/Touch (HPPR) | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.81 |
| Pts/Touch (PPR) | 0.69 | 0.84 | 0.91 |
Marlon Mack Overview:
For the third time in as many seasons, Marlon Mack missed multiple games in 2019. I say “missed” to refer to the games where he actually did not play, and not to the three games wherein he failed to show up entirely (39 yards week four, 39 in week fourteen, and 19 in week 15). Mack turned in 178 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games, but that didn’t matter if you rostered him and he bounced you out of the playoffs in week fourteen.
Marlon Mack is a dying breed: a two-down thumper who can’t catch passes and defers to other players to do the more agile work out of the backfield. That’s where Nyheim Hines’ value steps in (and Hines fits the mold of the Danny Woodhead/Austin Ekeler player that new QB Philip Rivers has turned into superstars). Also, the Indianapolis Colts went out and got the best running back in the class, Jonathan Taylor. Marlon Mack’s fantasy value is starting to get hemmed in on all sides, and he has a narrow window of opportunity to start the year. It’ll take him overperforming and JT struggling mightily for Mack to return fantasy football production, so things look bleak for him in his fourth year.
Marlon Mack Draft Strategy:
Marlon Mack Auction Value: $3
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
I’m not bothering with Marlon Mack, and I’m certain you shouldn’t, either. He certainly doesn’t present a ton of standalone value outside of deeper leagues where a two-down back getting twelve touches a game can get you all flustered. I’m moving my chips to literally every other running back in this backfield. Jonathan Taylor presents the most talent and Nyheim Hines is a $1 dart throw in PPR leagues to have an Austin Ekeler-type role in Indianapolis.
I will not have Marlon Mack on any of my rosters in 2020. I would encourage the same from you.
Best Case Scenario:
Jonathan Taylor fails to live up to expectations, and Nyheim Hines doesn’t break out. It’s a very narrow road to walk for Mack to have a lot of fantasy football production in 2020.
Worst Case Scenario:
Jonathan Taylor becomes an Indianapolis heartthrob as big as his namesake, Jonathan Taylor Thomas. Marlon Mack gets driven out of town as quickly as his namesake, the Mack truck.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
