As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. This is because anyone who is looking at 2016 to figure out what to do in 2020 had better be a Leicester City fan wondering if they’ll ever again win the Premier League. Yeah, we follow European football, and we also follow Mike Evans’ chances of being a WR1 in 2020 fantasy leagues.
Mike Evans ADP and AAV:
Standard: WR8, 22 overall
PPR: WR7, 24 overall
Average Auction Value: $27
Mike Evans Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 13 | 16 | 15 |
| GS | 13 | 16 | 15 |
| Tgt | 118 | 138 | 136 |
| Rec | 67 | 86 | 71 |
| Yards | 1157 | 1524 | 1001 |
| TD | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| Tgt/G | 7.38 | 8.63 | 8.50 |
| Rec/G | 4.19 | 5.38 | 4.44 |
| Rec% | 56.8% | 62.3% | 52.2% |
| Yds/Tgt | 9.81 | 11.04 | 7.36 |
| Yds/Rec | 17.27 | 17.72 | 14.10 |
Mike Evans Overview:
Evan Hoovler: Welcome back! I’m here talking with Mike Evans about his fantasy prospects in redraft leagues. Mr. Evans, welcome! Thanks for coming on, today!
Mike Evans: You know that I’m not really here right?
Hoovler: Hmmmm?
Evans: You forgot to take your pills again. The green ones.
Hoovler: Ha ha, okay: Mike it is, then! Mike, how much are you looking forward to working with all-world talent and incredible-guy-whom-I-totally-hate, Tom Brady?
Mike: We haven’t really had a chance to get together and do some reps, but it will be an honor to play for him.
Hoovler: I couldn’t help but notice you said, “it will be an honor to play for him,” as opposed to, “it will be an honor to catch 10 or more touchdowns from him” or “it will be an honor to go over 1,000 receiving yards with him.” Does that mean we can assume you are expecting a down year?
Mike: What? No.
Hoovler: You deny this, even though you haven’t had any chance to build rapport with your new quarterback, a QB who prefers to throw to an open man whereas you tend to win contested catches (as evidenced by you ending up 5th in average yards-after-catch on your own team). Plus, you stubbornly insist that your quarterback will trust you despite having the second-lowest percentage of targets caught among top-20 fantasy WRs in 2019?
Mike: That’s it, I’m gone. <disappears>
Mike Evans Draft Strategy:
Auction Value: $16
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
While it would surprise no one if Evans finished top-twelve this year, there are just too many variables for me to recommend him in the third round or anything more than $20. That means I won’t be getting him in any of my leagues this year, and I’m alright with that. I’m good, really, thanks for asking!
If I’m going to go after a player with WR1 potential, but a low floor, I’d rather do it two or three rounds later with Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or another of many receivers that could fall to round 4-5 (and one of them, at least, will definitely fall to $5-$12). Evans has a decent offense and one of the all-time best quarterbacks, yes, but he also has a new quarterback who is 42 years old and will have no preseason acclimation. In addition, Evans is losing a quarterback who would just chuck the ball deep every time then get on his knees and say a prayer.
Best Case Scenario:
Mike Evans finishes as a back-end WR1, which is where people are currently taking him (round 2-3 turn).
Worst Case Scenario:
Tampa Bays offense turns in a way more balanced direction. Evans’ opportunities go down and he finishes as a ho-hum fantasy WR2 or WR3. Turns out I’m not actually crazy.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
