As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. Cam Newton’s 2019 ended unceremoniously, as a Lisfranc injury cost him almost all of 2019. He never played after two ineffectual regular-season games. Now, he’s the newest quarterback for the New England Patriots. There are so many questions. Namely, did the Patriots do this on purpose last preseason? Injuring Cam’s foot, knowing it would cost him 2019? Letting Tom Brady walk for Cam Newton? Engineering COVID-19 in a lab to shut down independent testing so everyone else would be scared of letting Cam eat a massive chunk of cap space with a bum wheel? màk1ngCAMnéwtônTYPÊàllHissôc1àlMĚD1ApôstsL1KÊthis?
What is his fantasy football upside, and is he worth a draft pick? We address all that, except for all the conspiracies and the text thing, below.
Cam Newton ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: QB27, 190 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: QB26, 184 overall
Average Auction Value: $1
Cam Newton Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 2 | 14 | 16 |
| GS | 2 | 14 | 16 |
| Att | 89 | 471 | 492 |
| Comp | 50 | 320 | 291 |
| Comp% | 56.2% | 67.9% | 59.2% |
| Yds | 572 | 3395 | 3302 |
| TD | 0 | 24 | 22 |
| Int | 1 | 13 | 16 |
| Att/G | 44.5 | 33.6 | 30.8 |
| Comp/G | 25.0 | 22.9 | 18.2 |
| Yds/G | 286.0 | 242.5 | 206.4 |
| TD/G | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| INT/G | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Ru Att | 5 | 101 | 139 |
| Ru Yds | -2 | 488 | 754 |
| Ru TD | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| YPC | -0.4 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Ru Att/G | 2.5 | 7.2 | 8.7 |
| Ru Yd/G | -1.0 | 34.9 | 47.1 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| 4 PPTD | 16.7 | 282.6 | 299.5 |
| 6 PPTD | 16.7 | 330.6 | 343.5 |
| 4 PPTD/G | 8.4 | 20.2 | 18.7 |
| 6 PPTD/G | 8.35 | 23.61 | 21.47 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 792 | 3391 | 4133 |
| aDOT | 8.90 | 7.20 | 8.40 |
| aDOT+ | 0.72 | -0.98 | 0.22 |
| Y/A | 6.43 | 7.21 | 6.71 |
| TD% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% |
| INT% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% |
| Sacks | 6 | 29 | 35 |
| Yds/Sack | 7.17 | 7.34 | 6.91 |
Cam Newton Overview:
Cam Newton’s 2019 campaign was essentially a lost cause. He injured his foot in the preseason, tried it out for a couple of games, reinjured his foot on Thursday Night Football in week two, and called it a season from there. He played two games, five days apart! We don’t really know if his surgically repaired shoulder is better, we don’t really know if his Lisfranc injury has healed, and we definitely don’t know if he ever learned how to throw to the open receiver.
The major part of Cam Newton’s game that makes him so good for fantasy football is his rushing. Will Bill Belichick—and his foot—let him run? I’d think so. I’d hope so. After all, Cam is on a league-minimum, incentive-laden contract. If the Cam does well, the Patriots do well. And Cam does best when he can run.
Cam Newton has never been the most accurate quarterback (he has only two years above a 60% completion rate, but his legs make him the rounded MVP quarterback he was in 2015. In that year, he ran for 636 yards and ten touchdowns, on top of 3,837 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns. Obviously, that’s the ceiling here. I would call a good 2020 Cam Newton season about 70% of that. Call it 3,000 passing yards, 450 rush yards, seven rushing touchdowns and 25 passing touchdowns. That would be well worth the fantasy football effort in New England.
Cam Newton Draft Strategy:
Cam Newton Auction Value: $1
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
Herein lies the rub. Cam Newton is going to be essentially free. The test out of the fantasy football cognoscenti is that due to his injuries and his performance decline, Cam Newton is a questionable pick. Most recommend him for a buck or in the DST/Kicker range of the draft. At this point, go for it. His upside is through the roof, given that he’s literally been an MVP before. His downside is the same as Sam Darnold: you cut him and move on. This is where investing cheaply in quarterbacks pays off. Get Cam, snag another guy (Drew Lock. Joe Burrow, or Gardner Minshew) and see which one plays out. You’ll get far more than the $2 you spent on them back from one of those two guys.
Best Case Scenario:
Cam literally won MVP.
Worst Case Scenario:
Cam literally threw for zero touchdowns last year.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
