As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. As the saying goes, “a rising tide lifts all boats.” Last year, Lamar Jackson was the tide, and Mark Andrews was one of the boats. Can he repeat his top-four fantasy football performance in 2020?
Mark Andrews ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: TE3, 33 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: TE4, 42 overall
Average Auction Value: $20
Mark Andrews Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| G | 15 | 16 |
| GS | 4 | 3 |
| Tgt | 98 | 50 |
| Rec | 64 | 34 |
| Yards | 852 | 552 |
| TD | 10 | 3 |
| Tgt/G | 6.5 | 3.1 |
| Rec/G | 4.27 | 2.13 |
| Rec% | 56.8 | 34.5 |
| Yds/Tgt | 8.69 | 11.04 |
| Yds/Rec | 8.694 | 11.040 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| Std Pts | 143.2 | 73.2 |
| HPPR Pts | 205.2 | 106.2 |
| PPR Pts | 207.2 | 107.2 |
| Pts/G | 9.0 | 4.9 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 12.8 | 7.1 |
| PPR Pts/G | 13.0 | 7.1 |
| Pts/Tgt | 1.46 | 1.46 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 2.09 | 2.12 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 2.11 | 2.14 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| Air Yards | 1035 | 556 |
| aDOT | 10.6 | 11.1 |
| YAC | 291 | 195 |
| YAC/Tgt | 2.97 | 3.90 |
| YAC/Rec | 4.55 | 5.74 |
| YAC% | 34.2% | 35.3% |
| AYMS | 28% | 11% |
| Tgt MS | 23% | 9% |
Mark Andrews Overview:
To answer the question in the intro: Yes. Okay, thank you for your time. If you want more details, sure I can toss those your way. Mark Andrews was a top-flight tight end last year due to his usage and touchdowns, but the Ravens didn’t even use him that much. Sure, if he was in on a play, he was probably getting a target (#1 in targets per snap among tight ends). He was also probably getting that downfield (his 20 deep targets also led tight ends), but Andrews ran a route on just 55% of the Ravens’ passing plays last year. Why is that? Probably because Mark Andrews didn’t get more than 57% of the team’s snaps in any game last year.
That’s right, Mark Andrews was a part-time player. You just wouldn’t know it if you looked at the box score. The Ravens traded Hayden Hurst away to the Falcons, which means more time on the field for Mark Andrews. More snaps mean more targets, and more targets mean more production. Everything is set up for Mark Andrews to succeed this year. He will most definitely get less efficient on a per-target basis, but his cut of the pie will grow, giving him more potential production (snaps and targets) to work with.
Mark Andrews Draft Strategy:
Mark Andrews Auction Value: $20
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
Mark Andrews is going nearly two-rounds later than Kelce and Kittle and is going for half the price of Kelce in auctions (Kelce $41, Andrews $20. For reference, Kittle is $32). So, despite being so pricy, he still constitutes value at the position. This is where you can find value if you want to slightly pay up at tight end, but you don’t feel like paying all the way up. This is the Andrews and Ertz zone. These two players create the second-tier of tight end investment for people in their fantasy football drafts.
Personally, if I have to take from this second-tier, I’m going with Andrews. There aren’t as many question marks with the offense, and Nick Boyle is no Dallas Goedert. I can’t fault you if you go, Ertz, given his track record, but I’m not excited about digging into that Philadelphia passing game with a high draft pick. Mark Andrews has all opportunity to build on his break out season, and if I can get him at a discount, whether in ADP or AAV, I’m jumping on that opportunity.
To me, Andrews sits between the slam dunk tier of TEs (Kelce/Kittle) and the tier of tight ends that start to have a ton of question marks (Waller and Ertz). Ertz & Waller start the tier of lottery ball tight ends (guys who could get spit out in any order at season’s end, and that order would make sense). I’m going to invest in the back of that tier, not the front of it. Andrews is your last chance to get a guy you feel good about that doesn’t have a reasonable downside of TE15.
Best Case Scenario:
TE1. If he maintains route participation percentage while getting more snaps, the sheer increase in volume will make him the #1 tight end at the season’s end.
Worst Case Scenario:
Lamar Jackson was a flash-in-the-pan and the Ravens go 4-12. Mark Andrews ends up envying the targets guys like Irv Smith or Ross Dwelley get.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
