As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. A calf injury derailed Philadelphia’s 2019 plans for Dallas Goedert, but can you tab him as a late tight end who will return major upside in 2020?
Dallas Goedert ADP and AAV:
Standard: TE13, 122 overall
PPR: TE16, 145 overall
Average Auction Value: $1
Dallas Goedert Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| G | 15 | 16 |
| GS | 9 | 8 |
| Tgt | 87 | 44 |
| Rec | 58 | 33 |
| Yards | 607 | 334 |
| TD | 5 | 4 |
| Tgt/G | 5.8 | 2.8 |
| Rec/G | 3.87 | 2.06 |
| Rec% | 40.5 | 20.9 |
| Yds/Tgt | 6.98 | 7.59 |
| Yds/Rec | 6.977 | 7.591 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| Std Pts | 86.7 | 57.4 |
| HPPR Pts | 131.7 | 67.9 |
| PPR Pts | 144.7 | 90.4 |
| Pts/G | 5.8 | 3.6 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 8.8 | 4.2 |
| PPR Pts/G | 9.6 | 5.7 |
| Pts/Tgt | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.51 | 1.54 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.66 | 2.05 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 |
| Air Yards | 499 | 310 |
| aDOT | 5.7 | 7.6 |
| YAC | 331 | 161 |
| YAC/Tgt | 3.80 | 3.93 |
| YAC/Rec | 5.71 | 5.03 |
| YAC% | 54.5% | 49.1% |
| AYMS | 11% | 8% |
| Tgt MS | 15% | 8% |
Dallas Goedert Overview:
Prior to last season, we heard a lot about how Dallas Goedert would be running in two tight end sets with Zach Ertz, and that his time in the sun was just over the horizon. Then, Goedert injured his calf in the preseason, leading to a missed week two and not playing 75% or more of snaps until week eight. Things were bad for Goedert to start 2019, but they sure didn’t end that way.
Starting in week nine of 2019, Goedert received at least 79% of snaps in 6-of-8 games and played on a 120-target, 850-yards, 4-touchdown pace for the second half of the year. In this span, Goedert was the #8 tight end in half-PPR leagues, definitely worth an own. Especially when you consider that the Eagles threw out of three-WR sets at the third-lowest rate last year, and out of two-TE sets at the highest rate in 2019.
Well, what about 2020? Alshon Jeffery will be ba—
Oh, hm. Well remember DeSean Jackson? He shou—HE SAID WHAT?
Well second-rounder J.J. Arcega-Whiteside certainly did something to show he deserves more targets in 2020, right? And newcomer Marquise Goodwin is reliably on the field; he definitely hasn’t missed at least four games in five-of-seven seasons so far?
So what you’re telling me is that it’s Zach Ertz, rookie Jalen Reagor, and Dallas Goedert in line for targets in Philadelphia?
Dallas Goedert Draft Strategy:
Dallas Goedert Auction Value: $2
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
Dallas Goedert is basically free in drafts or going in the range of players I would call “basically free.” There’s a big drop off in ADP and price because conceivably any of these guys could end up in the top-five at tight end but also well outside the top-twenty. Dallas Goedert falls in that range, but has a much higher floor, to me. The Eagles have nothing but questions at wide receiver and responded the last two years to questions by peppering tight ends with targets. This year should be no different, as there are a lot of things that could break wrong for the Eagles’ wide receivers. That leaves lots of targets for Ertz and Goedert. Ertz is going at a premium, Goedert isn’t. They were both top-ten tight ends when Philadelphia needed them last year. This isn’t rocket surgery!
Best Case Scenario:
This is the year that Ertz and Goedert flip-flop their final rankings, and Goedert ends up inside the top-five at tight end.
Worst Case Scenario:
This is the year that Ertz and Goedert flip-flop their final rankings, though both end up outside the top-ten at tight end.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
