As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. Marvin Jones Jr ended 2019 on the IR with a knee injury, the same way his 2018 season ended. Is the third time the charm for Marvin Jones, and can you ride his productive pace during his healthy games into a full season of fantasy football glory in 2020?
Marvin Jones Jr ADP and AAV:
Standard ADP: WR38, 91 overall
PPR ADP: WR37, 93 overall
Average Auction Value: $1
Marvin Jones Jr Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| GS | 11 | 9 | 16 |
| Tgt | 91 | 62 | 107 |
| Rec | 62 | 35 | 61 |
| Yards | 779 | 508 | 1101 |
| TD | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| Tgt/G | 5.69 | 3.88 | 6.69 |
| Rec/G | 3.88 | 2.19 | 3.81 |
| Rec% | 68.1% | 56.5% | 57.0% |
| Yds/Tgt | 8.56 | 8.19 | 10.29 |
| Yds/Rec | 12.56 | 14.51 | 18.05 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 131.9 | 80.8 | 164.1 |
| HPPR Pts | 162.9 | 98.3 | 194.6 |
| PPR Pts | 193.9 | 115.8 | 225.1 |
| Pts/G | 10.1 | 9.0 | 10.3 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 12.5 | 10.9 | 12.2 |
| PPR Pts/G | 14.9 | 12.9 | 14.1 |
| Pts/Tgt | 1.45 | 1.30 | 1.53 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.79 | 1.59 | 1.82 |
| Pts/Tgt (PPR) | 2.13 | 1.87 | 2.10 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 1189 | 906 | 1624 |
| aDOT | 13.1 | 14.6 | 15.2 |
| YAC | 106 | 101 | 195 |
| YAC/Tgt | 1.16 | 1.63 | 1.82 |
| YAC/Rec | 1.71 | 2.89 | 3.20 |
| YAC% | 13.6% | 19.9% | 17.7% |
| AYMS | 26% | 36% | 36% |
| Tgt MS | 19% | 19% | 18% |
Marvin Jones Jr Overview:
When Marvin Jones can play, Marvin Jones is productive. Over his four seasons with the Lions, Jones has missed 11 games. Outside of those games, he paces out for 64 catches for 1,002 yards and eight touchdowns per sixteen games. He’s productive but inconsistent. Nothing better encapsulates his high highs and low lows than his week six through eight stretch last season. In these three games, he averaged 44 yards per game and scored four touchdowns in three games. The only rub? He had 39 total yards in weeks four and six combined and scored all four touchdowns in week five.
Overall, Marvin Jones is a high-end player when he can get onto the field, but his individual weeks cause the problems. If you could set-and-forget Marvin Jones, you would get a guy who was a WR1 in all formats (WR7 in standard, WR11 in half-PPR, and WR12 in PPR) in weeks that he played in 2019. In 2018? He was WR2 in all formats in the games he played. A lot of that comes from touchdowns, but don’t ignore his per-target stats.
Jones’ teammate Kenny Golladay gets all the publicity, but it’s worth noting that Golladay and Marvin Jones are the only wide receiver teammates to have an average depth of target over 13.5 while getting more than 50 targets.
Marvin Jones Jr Draft Strategy:
Marvin Jones Jr Auction Value: $3
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
Marvin Jones Jr. is going in a range where you can snag him as your fourth wide receiver, though I have built rosters I like with him as my third WR. He’s extremely boom-bust, as we’ve noted, but his boom weeks sort of makeup for his bye weeks.
It’s exactly this rollercoaster ride that makes it so that even if Marvin Jones can play a full year, I don’t trust him as anything more than my third wide receiver. Ideally, he’s my flex guy who comes in to drop the hammer on my opponent in his boom weeks, and who catches enough balls to make his bust weeks not so painful.
Remember the massive game I outlined in the overview? Don’t get it twisted that it created Marvin Jones’ final stat line. After that massive performance, MJJ played on a 73 catch, 896 yards, 9 touchdown performance for the remainder of his season. He was still very good and is well worth a pick at his ADP.
Best Case Scenario:
He plays an entire season and evens out his booms and busts. With his TD upside, he ends the year as a top-ten wide receiver.
Worst Case Scenario:
He doesn’t even out his booms and busts and ends the year with 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. 700 of those yards and 8 of those touchdowns come in two games.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
