As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. The Rams let themselves off the hook for the Brandin Cooks deal, conceivably funneling targets back into the existing wide receivers on the team. Why, then, is Robert Woods going so low in fantasy football drafts and auctions?
Robert Woods ADP and AAV:
Standard: WR20, 48 overall
PPR: WR19, 46 overall
Average Auction Value: $9
Robert Woods Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 15 | 16 | 12 |
| GS | 15 | 16 | 11 |
| Tgt | 139 | 130 | 85 |
| Rec | 90 | 86 | 56 |
| Yards | 1134 | 1219 | 781 |
| TD | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Tgt/G | 8.69 | 8.13 | 5.31 |
| Rec/G | 5.63 | 5.38 | 3.50 |
| Rec% | 64.7% | 66.2% | 65.9% |
| Yds/Tgt | 8.16 | 9.38 | 9.19 |
| Yds/Rec | 12.60 | 14.17 | 13.95 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 142.9 | 179.6 | 107.3 |
| HPPR Pts | 187.9 | 222.6 | 135.3 |
| PPR Pts | 232.9 | 265.6 | 163.3 |
| Pts/G | 9.5 | 11.2 | 8.9 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 12.5 | 13.9 | 11.3 |
| PPR Pts/G | 15.5 | 16.6 | 13.6 |
| Pts/Tgt | 1.03 | 1.38 | 1.26 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.35 | 1.71 | 1.59 |
| Pts/Tgt (PPR) | 1.68 | 2.04 | 1.92 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 1175 | 1462 | 866 |
| aDOT | 8.5 | 11.3 | 10.2 |
| YAC | 576 | 416 | 304 |
| YAC/Tgt | 4.14 | 3.22 | 3.58 |
| YAC/Rec | 6.40 | 4.95 | 5.43 |
| YAC% | 50.8% | 34.7% | 38.9% |
| AYMS | 25% | 30% | 28% |
| Tgt MS | 23% | 23% | 22% |
Robert Woods Overview:
Over the last two seasons, Robert Woods averaged just over 8.5 targets per game, whether Brandin Cooks played or not. That will be the last mention of Brandin Cooks in this article since they played two very different roles in the Rams’ offense (Cooks’ depth of target was much further downfield than Woods’). The Rams brought in Van Jefferson with a second-round pick this season to replace Cooks on the field, and we’ve summarily decided to disrespect Robert Woods over it.
Let’s look at Woods’ numbers over the last couple of years among wide receivers: seventh in targets, seventh in yards, top-ten in YAC. Woods ended the last two years as a top-ten wide receiver in both PPR and half-PPR. He took a dive in standard scoring all the way down to WR18. Bobby Forest has been incredibly consistent and incredibly productive over the last two years in Los Angeles. He has just six games under 40 yards in the last two seasons combined and has at least five targets in all but four games over the last two years. The man gets targets, and he does a lot with them.
If you’re worried about the last five games last year, where Tyler Higbee went en fuego and had all the targets in the world… don’t be. In those five games, Woods had 59 targets of his own, which he turned into 94 yards per game while scoring two touchdowns in those five contests. Even if the Rams turn towards Higbee, Woods’ targets should stay where they are.
Robert Woods Draft Strategy
Robert Woods Auction Value: $10
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
Why, then, are we disparaging Robert Woods with this ADP and average draft price? He’s a slam dunk top-fifteen wide receiver and has serious top-ten consideration. There’s no reason why he should be going so far, considering his year-end rankings are so high with just eight touchdowns over the last two years. He’s going behind Cooper Kupp, who has so much of his value tied up into his touchdowns. I’m banking on Woods’ consistent targeting and yardage, with touchdown upside, rather than investing in Kupp’s touchdowns hoping the yardage will come.
Right now, Woods is going at the end of the fourth round and is the ideal fourth-round wide receiver to take if you started RB-RB and need to fill out your WR stock before moving forward. I’m over-the-moon if I can get Woods as my second wide receiver, but more than happy to enter the year with him as my WR1 if I waited too long on the position. This is doubly true in any league where you get points for catches, as Mr. Forest gets more of those than… a forest has pine cones? I don’t know, I don’t know forests. I tried. It didn’t work.
Get Robert Woods at his ADP, you have my seal of approval. That means you can blame me if things go wrong with Woods (they won’t). But remember to praise me when things go right with Woods (you won’t).
Best Case Scenario:
Jared Goff recognizes that forests are our greatest natural treasure and goes to great lengths to preserve and support Woods’ growth into a set-and-forget WR1.
Worst Case Scenario:
Goff can’t see the Woods for the trees, and defers his target load to his trees in the offense… the tight ends. Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett soak up all the targets that should go to Woods.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
