As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. Mike Williams has three seasons in the NFL but is yet to put together a full-on quality season for fantasy football purposes. Is 2020 the season where he puts it all together for fantasy purposes?
Mike Williams ADP and AAV:
Standard: WR40, 98 overall
PPR: WR53, 139 overall
Average Auction Value: $1
Mike Williams Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 15 | 16 | 10 |
| GS | 15 | 5 | 1 |
| Tgt | 90 | 66 | 23 |
| Rec | 49 | 43 | 11 |
| Yards | 1001 | 664 | 95 |
| TD | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tgt/G | 5.63 | 4.13 | 1.44 |
| Rec/G | 3.06 | 2.69 | 0.69 |
| Rec% | 54.4% | 65.2% | 47.8% |
| Yds/Tgt | 11.12 | 10.06 | 4.13 |
| Yds/Rec | 20.43 | 15.44 | 8.64 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 112.3 | 137.2 | 9.5 |
| HPPR Pts | 136.8 | 158.7 | 15 |
| PPR Pts | 161.3 | 180.2 | 20.5 |
| Pts/G | 7.5 | 8.6 | 1.0 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 9.1 | 9.9 | 1.5 |
| PPR Pts/G | 10.8 | 11.3 | 2.1 |
| Pts/Tgt | 1.25 | 2.08 | 0.41 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.52 | 2.40 | 0.65 |
| Pts/Tgt (PPR) | 1.79 | 2.73 | 0.89 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 1626 | 964 | 264 |
| aDOT | 18.1 | 14.6 | 11.5 |
| YAC | 187 | 118 | 11 |
| YAC/Tgt | 2.08 | 1.79 | 0.48 |
| YAC/Rec | 3.82 | 2.74 | 1.00 |
| YAC% | 18.7% | 17.8% | 11.6% |
| AYMS | 34% | 24% | 10% |
| Tgt MS | 16% | 13% | 7% |
Mike Williams Overview:
Last season, Mike Williams hit 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career. But, he didn’t get a touchdown until week fourteen and ended the year with just two touchdowns. In 2018, he had just 664 yards but scored ten touchdowns. Mike Williams is good, Williams was a first-round pick, top-ten even! But that terrible touchdown luck should reverse itself this season. Last season, if Mike Williams got touchdowns at a league-average rate for wide receivers, he would have had a ton more than two. On average, 5% of wide receiver targets ended up as touchdowns last year, and on average, wide receivers scored a touchdown every 164 yards. If Williams had just been average in either of those ways, he would have scored somewhere between 4.5 and 6 touchdowns last year. I’m not sure what a half-touchdown looks like.
So there’s the pure luck regression from Mike Williams that could lead to a break out 2020 for him, but what about the quarterback? Therein lies the problem. He has either Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert throwing him the football this year. I don’t like Justin Herbert as a talent, and I hope the Chargers don’t turn to him his rookie year but Tyrod Taylor could be even worse. Taylor is reunited with Anthony Lynn, who was the OC and interim head coach for Taylor and the Bills in 2016. This is a problem. Why? In 2016, Tyrod Taylor had Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Marquise Goodwin in his arsenal, and Charles Clay led them in targets. That seems pretty bad for Mike Williams’ 2020 fantasy football prospects.
Mike Williams Draft Strategy:
Mike Williams Auction Value: $1
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
If you want to bank on Mike Williams putting it all together in 2020, be my guest. He’s going as a reserve wide receiver in snake drafts. I like him more at his PPR price point than standard. Investing a top-100 pick in Tyrod Taylor’s third-or-fourth target option doesn’t seem like a great call, to me. But, in auction drafts, you can likely get Williams for a dollar. That is somewhere where I am investing to see if I am completely wrong about Anthony Lynn, Tyrod Taylor, and/or Justin Herbert. I’m not going out of my way to get Mike Williams, and neither should you. After all, they haven’t gone out of their way to set Williams up to succeed in 2020. Trying to think he will is likely more wishful thinking than anything else.
Best Case Scenario:
It all comes together for Mike Williams and he gets over 1,000 yards and double-digit scores. This puts together the best of each of his last two seasons.
Worst Case Scenario:
It all falls apart for Mike Williams as he puts together the worst parts of his last two seasons: 664 yards and two touchdowns.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
